All forecasting is storytelling.
Morgan Housel serves up a good reminder:
…while data-driven storytelling doesn’t mean guessing, it doesn’t mean prophecy.
We can use historical data to assume a trend will continue, but that’s just a story we want to believe in a world where things change all the time.
We can use data to assume a crazy event will revert to the norm, but that’s also just a story in a world where unsustainable trends last longer than people think.
